Custom Essay Writing Service - one-three-one essay
''One Two Three Little Indians'' by Hugh Garner Essay …
Immediately after your supporting sentences, you should add your second point and follow that with one or two supporting sentences. Depending on your assignment requirements you will usually not need to present more than two or three points to support your thesis statement, so be sure you choose only your best arguments.
Essay #1 One of Three: Essays: Kevin's Writing 39A Eportfolio
Two-Eyes lives with her two elder sisters, One-Eye and Three-Eyes, who make fun of her for not looking normal like they do. Like Cinderella, Two-Eyes does all the work around the house for unappetizing leftovers, while her siblings eat lavishly and live a life of leisure. One day, while Two-Eyes is taking the family goat out for a graze, a strange old woman appears out of nowhere with a basketful of magical secrets. She teaches Two-Eyes a chant to summon scrumptious food, but the mean sisters become suspicious and follow her. A cat-and-mouse game ensues, with Two-Eyes helped by the old woman, a talking stream and a very clever tree. In the end, a handsome knight on a purple horse whisks her off to his castle, which is full of two-eyed people. Clement’s quirky watercolors suit the fractured fairytale, adapted from a Brothers Grimm original. Wry fun for the early grades.
Ttached as a Word File (choose one of the three questions)
I once had a player litteraly walk on a clue and the party still managed to miss it. It wasn’t a choke point in the plot, in fact it wasn’t even a mystery scenario but still! You’ve got three adventurers walking in the mud, one of them in heavy armor, his weight make the hidden bones of previous adventurer crack. They should have got info about the monsters in the area from that, and a nice little magic dagger…
MoMA | Joseph Kosuth. One and Three Chairs. 1965
or you could just add their logarithms:
It starts out as fairly unlikely that a woman has breast cancer - ourcredibility level is at -20 decibels. Then three test resultscomein, corresponding to 9, 13, and 5 decibels of evidence. Thisraises the credibility level by a total of 27 decibels, meaning thattheprior credibility of -20 decibels goes to a posterior credibility of 7decibels. So the odds go from 1:99 to 5:1, and the probabilitygoes from 1% to around 83%.
Just for fun, try and work this one out in your head. You don'tneed to be exact - a rough estimate is good enough. When you'reready, continue onward.
According to a study performed by Lawrence Phillips and Ward Edwards in1966, most people, faced with this problem, give an answer in the range70% to 80%. Did you give a substantially higher probability thanthat? If you did, congratulations - Ward Edwards wrote that veryseldom does a person answer this question properly, even if the personis relatively familiar with Bayesian reasoning. The correctansweris 97%.
The likelihood ratio for the test result "red chip" is 7/3, while thelikelihood ratio for the test result "blue chip" is 3/7. Thereforea blue chip is exactly the same amount of evidence as a red chip, justin the other direction - a red chip is 3.6 decibels of evidence for thered bag, and a blue chip is -3.6 decibels of evidence. If youdrawone blue chip and one red chip, they cancel out. So the of red chips to blue chipsdoes not matter; only the of red chips over blue chips matters. There were eight red chipsand four blue chips in twelve samples; therefore, four red chips than bluechips. Thus the posterior odds will be:
44which is around 30:1, i.e., around 97%.
The prior credibility starts at 0 decibels and there's a total ofaround 14 decibels of evidence, and indeed this corresponds to odds ofaround 25:1 or around 96%. Again, there's some rounding error,butif you performed the operations using exact arithmetic, the resultswould be identical.
We can now see that the bookbag problem would have exactly the same answer, obtainedinjust the same way, if sixteen chips were sampled and we found ten redchips and six blue chips.
What is the sequence of arithmetical operations that you performed tosolve this problem?
(45%*30%) / (45%*30% + 5%*70%)
Similarly, to find the chance that a woman with positive mammographyhas breast cancer, we computed:
The fully general form of this calculation is known as or
Given some phenomenon A that we want to investigate, and an observationX that is evidence about A - for example, in the previous example, A isbreast cancer and X is a positive mammography - Bayes' Theorem tells ushow we should ourprobability of A, given the X.
By this point, Bayes' Theorem may seem blatantly obvious or eventautological, rather than exciting and new. If so, thisintroduction has in its purpose.
So why is it that some people are so about Bayes' Theorem?
"Do you believe that a nuclear war will occur in the next 20 years?